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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

55%

33%

28%

17%

$322k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 30 12:00 PM ET

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

3%

chance

$65k Vol.DailyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

US announces location or date of US x Iran deal signing by...?

US announces location or date of US x Iran deal signing by...?

97%

97%

$136k Vol.DailyEnds Tomorrow 11:59 PM ET

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

77%

chance

$18k Vol.AnnualEnds Dec 30 7:00 PM ET

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

14%

chance

$9k Vol.AnnualEnds Dec 30 7:00 PM ET

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?

2%

chance

$7k Vol.AnnualEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Who will meet with Iran by June 30?

Who will meet with Iran by June 30?

45%

39%

33%

11%

5%

$50k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Who will Trump meet with in June?

Who will Trump meet with in June?

$99k Vol.DailyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Who will Trump speak to in June?

Who will Trump speak to in June?

$349k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Oil Sanction Relief

69%

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

53%

Troop Withdrawal

40%

Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz

6%

Enrichment of Uranium

6%

$1.9M Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

No Meeting by June 30

45%

29%

13%

7%

5%

2%

1%

0%

0%

0%

Other - Middle East/North Africa

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

$9.5M Vol.DailyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

70%

56%

21%

14%

12%

8%

6%

2%

1%

$7.5M Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 20 8:00 PM ET