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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?

38%

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—

—

—

$3 Vol.WeeklyEnds Jun 21 3:59 PM ET

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

55%

33%

28%

17%

$322k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 30 12:00 PM ET

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?

39%

25%

18%

14%

12%

$60k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 30 12:00 PM ET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

0%

chance

$8.9M Vol.MonthlyEnds 8:00 PM ET

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

34%

32%

22%

20%

20%

12%

12%

10%

9%

9%

9%

9%

6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

$747k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

7%

6%

4%

2%

$9.6M Vol.DailyEnds Jun 30 7:55 PM ET

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

26%

chance

$302k Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?

2%

chance

$7k Vol.AnnualEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

6%

chance

$23k Vol.DailyEnds 8:00 PM ET

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Oil Sanction Relief

69%

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

53%

Troop Withdrawal

40%

Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz

6%

Enrichment of Uranium

6%

$1.9M Vol.MonthlyEnds Jun 29 8:00 PM ET